Probabilistic argumentation systems: A new way to combine logic with probability

Probability is usually closely related to Boolean structures, i.e. Boolean algebras or propositional logic. Here we show, how probability can be combined with Non-Boolean structures, and in particular Non-Boolean logics. The basic idea is to describe uncertainty by (Boolean) assumptions, which may or may not be valid. The uncertain information depends then on these uncertain assumptions, scenarios or interpretations. We propose to describe information in information systems, as introduced by Scott into domain theory. This captures a wide range of systems of practical importance such as many propositional logics, first order logic, systems of linear equations, inequalities, etc. It covers thus both symbolic as well as numerical systems. Assumption-based reasoning allows then to deduce supporting arguments for hypotheses. A probability structure imposed on the assumptions permits to quantify the reliability of these supporting arguments and thus to introduce degrees of support for hypotheses. Information systems and related information algebras are formally introduced and studied in this paper as the basic structures for assumption-based reasoning. The probability structure is then formally represented by random variables with values in information algebras. Since these are in general Non-Boolean structures some care must be exercised in order to introduce these random variables. It is shown that this theory leads to an extension of Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence and that information algebras provide in fact a natural frame for this theory. ∗Research supported by grant No. 2100–042927.95 of the Swiss National Foundation for Research. I thank the anonymous referee for his critical remarks and corrections. My thanks go also to B. Anrig for his comments and proof reading of this paper.